INVESTORS appear convinced that major Western central banks are close to a much-awaited pivot, from raising interest rates to cutting them. Markets rallied as a result, but 2024 could hold surprises as the world adjusts to an economic order where money is not cheap. Global stocks rallied and top government bond yields fell in recent weeks, despite central bankers cautioning against pivot bets. In the United States, for example, investors are now effectively positioned for the Federal Reserve guiding the economy to a perfect landing, bringing down inflation without triggering a recession. The market's conviction comes after the U.S. economy surprised people with its resilience. That was…