KENYA has just taken a calculated risk that paying more than 10% on a new international bond is worth it to avoid a default later in the year, even though history is littered with examples of this kind of gamble ending in tears. While interest rates have shot up everywhere over the last couple of years, a double-digit borrowing cost remains one of the most obvious warning signs that not all is well in a country. Kenya's hand was forced to a large degree, as it was facing the possibility that it wouldn't be able to cover a $2 billion…