THOUGHT LEADERSHIP - The African Mirror

Dec

19

2025

Uganda election: Museveni will win, but the landscape has changed since his last victory

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

ON the eve of Uganda’s 2021 presidential election, it was clear that regardless of how Ugandans voted, the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, would most likely be declared the winner. Amid mounting repression, accusations of vote rigging, and an internet blackout, that is exactly what transpired. Museveni was declared the winner for his sixth consecutive term in office. Five years on, that prediction could just as easily and accurately be applied to the 15 January 2026 vote. This should not be taken as evidence that national politics in Uganda have remained static. Far from it. It is true that state repression has…

Dec

19

2025

By TONY ROBERTS

Internet shutdowns are increasing dramatically in Africa – a new book explains why

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

BETWEEN 2016 and 2024, there were 193 internet shutdowns imposed in 41 African countries. This form of social control is a growing trend on the continent, according to a new open-access source book. It has provided the first-ever comparative analysis of how and why African states use blackouts – written by African researchers. The book, co-edited by digital rights activist and internet shutdown specialist Felicia Anthonio and digital researcher Tony Roberts, offers 11 in-depth case studies of state-sponsored shutdowns. We asked five questions about it. How do you define an internet shutdown, and why do they happen? Put simply, an…

Dec

18

2025

By JOVIAL RANTAO

The roar that never came: Africa’s Formula One dream deferred

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

WHILE champagne corks popped in the Algarve, the sound echoing across those spectacular Portuguese beaches and historic cobblestoned streets, a different kind of silence settled over Kigali and Johannesburg. The kind of silence that follows grand pronouncements, carefully designed circuits, and presidential declarations - when the phone call you're waiting for goes to voicemail. Again. Portugal is back, baby! 2027 and 2028! Two glorious years of that rollercoaster circuit, those dramatic elevation changes, that plunge down to the final right-hander. Lewis Hamilton will return to the site of his record-breaking 92nd victory, where he surpassed the immortal Michael Schumacher. The…

Dec

16

2025

By SAANA HANSEN

The price of going home: Christmas boxes and the final return from South Africa to Zimbabwe

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

EACH December, long-distance buses, minibus taxis and private cars stream northwards from South Africa as Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second biggest city, prepares for its annual ritual: the seasonal homecoming of “injiva” – migrants returning for Christmas. The old industrial city, where businesses have declined, and shops and restaurants struggle to survive, fills temporarily with cars with South African number plates and people dressed in trendy clothes signalling urban South African lifestyles. Trailers are loaded with remittances known as “Christmas boxes” containing cooking oil, soap and other groceries. A jumping castle is erected in the park, and popular music merges with laughter…

Dec

13

2025

By ERNEST HARSCH

Coups in Africa: how democratic failings help shape military takeovers – study

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

MALI, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea and Gabon have all suffered regime change in the last five years, led by men in military uniform. Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau experienced the same fate in 2025. Benin looked to join the list in early December, but the civilian government held onto power – just. The academic literature on coups in Africa has highlighted a wide range of influences and triggers. These include: personal and institutional rifts within the armed forces susceptibility to both elite manipulation and popular pressure instigation by foreign powers against governments deemed hostile to their interests. In a recent paper, I…

Feb

11

2025

By HENNING MELBER

Sam Nujoma personified Namibia’s struggle for freedom

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

SAM Nujoma was an outstanding Namibian leader who personified more than anybody else the country’s liberation struggle history and independence. His death at the age of 95 marks the end of an era. But his legacy will live on. Together with Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, he was central in the foundation of the national liberation movement, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo). Samuel (Sam) Shafishuna (“lightning”) Daniel Nujoma was born on 12 May 1929 at Etunda near Okahao in northern Namibia in today’s Omusati region, the eldest of 11 children. His childhood was devoted to helping care for his…

Dec

10

2025

By JOVIAL RANTAO

The spectacular self-immolation of Senzo Mchunu

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

THERE are many ways a politician can end their career. A sex scandal. A corruption conviction. A spectacular policy failure. But Senzo Mchunu has chosen a path far more excruciating: death by a thousand self-inflicted wounds, delivered live on national television, with millions watching him tie the noose, kick away the chair, and then helpfully explain why gravity is actually quite misunderstood. Welcome to the Madlanga Commission, where South Africa's suspended Police Minister has been treating us to a masterclass in political self-destruction so comprehensive, so thoroughly executed, that one almost has to admire the commitment to the craft. There…

Dec

10

2025

By JOHN JOSEPH CHIN

Benin’s failed coup: three factors behind the takeover attempt

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

MILITARY elements attempted to topple Benin’s government in early December 2025. However, unlike other coups across the Sahel and West Africa since 2020, this bid triggered a military response from Benin’s neighbours. Benin is a West African state of 14.8 million people bordered by Togo, Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria. Responding to two requests for assistance from the government of President Patrice Talon, Nigeria deployed fighter jets and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) deployed elements of its standby force to target and dislodge the pro-coup forces. Ecowas intervention likely played an important role in undermining the coup’s…

Dec

10

2025

By BUSANI NGCAWENI

South Africa and Pakistan: countries brought to their knees by elite capture and economic paralysis

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

IN the ongoing quest to understand South Africa’s political and economic stagnation, it may be helpful to look at other postcolonial states that have travelled further along the path of independence. This may help clarify the stagnation question that citizens, politicians and economists are grappling with. Much of the analysis of postcolonial Africa and Asia has identified poor leadership, authoritarianism and misguided economic policies as determinants of stagnation. These factors do matter. But they do not fully explain why some new independent states collapsed into dysfunction while others achieved growth. The deeper question is how institutions are built, sustained or…

Dec

09

2025

By FEDERICO DONELLI

Djibouti’s democracy takes another knock as ageing president engineers yet another term

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

DJIBOUTI’S president, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, pushed through constitutional changes removing presidential age limits in October 2025. The changes enable him to remain in power beyond 2026. He has already ruled for 26 years and is a shoo-in at elections in April 2026. Guelleh leads a country on the Horn of Africa where the Red Sea meets the Indian Ocean – one of the world’s most strategically important locations. Federico Donelli, who has studied Djibouti’s political landscape, unpacks the dynamics that have kept him in power. Who is Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, and what is his governance style? Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, commonly…