SINCE the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 world attention has focused largely on the military, political and humanitarian aspects of the war. Meanwhile, a silent emergency has been brewing: Ukraine’s demographics.
Prior to the war, Ukraine already faced significant population challenges, common to much of the Eastern European region: it had one of the lowest birth rates in Europe, with people leaving the country in search of better opportunities, and an ageing population in overall decline.
Russia’s full-scale invasion — which has now lasted nearly 1,000 days — made things much worse, according to UN population expert Florence Bauer.
“The birth rate plummeted to one child per woman – the lowest fertility rate in Europe and one of the lowest in the world,” Ms. Bauer said, speaking to reporters in Geneva.
A Huge Loss in Human Capital
As a direct consequence of the war, millions of people have been displaced, both inside Ukraine’s borders and externally, with some 6.7 million earning refugee status. Further declines in population have been brought on by casualties from the conflict, and the exodus of young people from many regions in the country, with severe consequences for the economy.
“Overall, Ukraine’s population has declined by over 10 million since the beginning of the war in 2014 and by an estimated 8 million since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022,” Ms. Bauer, the Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), explained.
“This also presents a huge loss in human capital – human capital that is urgently needed for recovery and for building Ukraine’s future,” she added.
A New Strategy for Ukraine’s population
To address these challenges, the government of Ukraine, with the support of UNFPA, has developed and recently adopted a new national demographic strategy. The plan focuses on building human capital, recognising the importance of socio-economic factors, and promoting gender equality.
“Ukraine has made progress, such as the 2021 law promoting shared caregiving roles by ensuring equal childcare responsibilities for fathers,” Ms. Bauer said in acknowledgement of past efforts by the Government of Ukraine. “But much more needs to be done,” she emphasised.
To help Ukraine recover UNFPA is recommending that a national population census be organised as soon as possible. Ukraine’s last population count was conducted in 2001, making much of the available data obsolete.
The UN Population Fund says it is recommending approaches aimed at achieving demographic sustainability in Ukraine, which would be based on gender inclusivity, overcoming stereotypes, and fostering economic opportunities. But none of these are likely to be achieved without peace in Ukraine, Ms. Bauer acknowledged. – UN Multimedia Newsroom
