AARON ROSS and DAVID LEWIS
GENERAL Mahamat Idriss Deby had been tipped to take over Chad’s leadership from his father some day. But the elder Deby’s death on the battlefield has meant that day came sooner than expected.
Although the army leadership put on a show of unity when the 37-year-old was presented on national television on Tuesday as the country’s new president and army commander-in-chief, holding them together will be his prime challenge, analysts say.
Most of the senior officers are of the same battle-hardened generation as his father. Mahamat Idriss Deby – also known as Mahamat Kaka – has some military experience. But he will quickly have to show his mettle as various rebel groups step up their challenge to the government.
“Kaka only has partial support of the army. He is young and, unlike his father, has never been a rebel,” said Jerome Tubiana, an analyst specialising in Chad.
In one ominous sign, less than 24 hours after Deby took power at the head of what was called a transitional military council, General Idriss Abderamane Dicko, an active-duty officer who served in the late Idriss Deby’s cabinet, denounced the military takeover. Dicko said he spoke for many officers.
“The sharks are around Mahamat,” said Roland Marchal, a senior fellow at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research. “There are already rows amongst themselves about how to share the spoils.”
As well as convincing the older generals, Mahamat Idriss Deby also has to win over a civilian population in which the opposition has been chafing at 30 years of authoritarian rule.
In his first public remarks since taking power, Deby tried to reassure Chadians that the military council did not intend to hold on to power and promised elections after an 18-month transitional period.
“I would like to underscore that political power is not our vocation,” he said on Wednesday, speaking in a soft monotone and rarely lifting his head from his prepared remarks.
He did not speak at his father’s funeral on Friday. His own official biography calls him “reserved”.
COMBAT EXPERIENCE
Graduating from military school with the rank of lieutenant, Deby got some of his first combat experience in the eastern Chad town of Am Dam in 2009 against Sudan-backed rebels, according to a Chadian analyst who asked not to be identified.
He cut a discrete figure as he rose through the military ranks, only coming to prominence in 2013 as the deputy commander of Chadian troops who hunted down Islamist militants alongside French forces in northern Mali. Deby served as the mission’s second-in-command, according to his biography.
In 2018, he was named head of the elite DGSSIE security force, whose troops are often deployed to foreign missions in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, where they battle Nigeria’s Boko Haram.
“General Mahamat Idriss Deby was a brilliant young officer who has proved himself on the ground,” General Brahim Souleyman Bachar, his former deputy at the DGSSIE, told Reuters. “He is rigorous during his command of operations but also compassionate with soldiers on the ground.”
But analyst Marchal said that in Mali he acted as spokesman for the Chadian contingent.
“He was efficient,” Marchal said. “But many Chadian officers were bitter – he was talking about operations but he was not the one who risked his life up in the far north.”
The Chadian analyst concurred.
“He has some experience but, unlike his father, he is not a seasoned fighter. It will be very hard for him to have the army behind him. His father built up a reputation and a career fighting (former dictator) Hissene Habre.”
There are also ethnic issues at play. The army is made up of various clans and ethnic groups. Deby’s father’s power base was in his Zaghawa clan but even that is showing signs of division.
“Deby already had to play a balancing game with members of his clan. His son will have to do the same,” said Valentin Robiliard, an analyst with Control Risks.
On top of that, Deby’s mother is Gourane – and the rebels that the army is fighting are mainly Gourane.
“It is not a homogenous army. I don’t see his son holding it together,” said Marchal.
FRENCH BACKING
He can count on backing from former colonial power France, which has more than 5,000 troops deployed across the Sahel and relies on Chadian forces as it tackles the regional threat from Islamists.
President Emmanuel Macron sat next to Deby at the funeral.
Marchal said that another son, Abdelkerim, could have been an option. “He is smart and went to West Point but was seen as too greedy even for Deby’s (senior) inner circle.”
Mahamat was selected because of his good relations with the French due to his Mali service and as he had been head of the DGSSIE.
“They put him there as he is the son of Idriss and the French like him,” Marchal said.
