UGANDA has descended into a violent post-election crackdown that has left at least nine people dead and the country’s main opposition leader in hiding, as President Yoweri Museveni consolidates power following a disputed election marred by intimidation, violence and allegations of widespread fraud.
The escalating repression following the January 15 presidential vote has exposed the brutal machinery of authoritarian control in a country where Museveni, Africa’s third-longest serving head of state, is poised to rule for 45 years by the end of his current term in 2031.
A Contested Victory Built on Fear
Museveni claimed a landslide victory with 72 percent of the vote compared to just under 25 percent for his main challenger, pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine, whose legal name is Robert Kyagulanyi. Wine has rejected the results as “blatant theft,” citing ballot stuffing and the kidnapping of his agents and supporters.
The election itself was conducted under conditions African observers said had “instilled fear” among voters. The vote was accompanied by an internet shutdown, violent attacks on opposition rallies where security forces repeatedly opened fire, and what Wine’s National Unity Platform (NUP) describes as a systematic campaign of intimidation.
Hours before Museveni’s victory was declared, Wine fled what he described as a military raid on his home. He has remained in hiding since, constantly moving and being sheltered “by the common people,” according to his statements. Wine says his wife and other relatives remain under house arrest.
Death Toll and Disputed Accounts
The violence has produced sharply conflicting narratives between authorities and opposition figures, with the truth obscured by state control and the absence of independent verification.
On Thursday, police detained Muwanga Kivumbi, a legislator and vice president of the NUP, in connection with clashes that police say killed at least seven people. Kivumbi presents a starkly different account, telling Reuters that 10 people were killed in what he called a “massacre” inside his house, where supporters had gathered to await results for his parliamentary seat.
Police claim machete-wielding opposition “goons” organised by Kivumbi attacked a police station and vote-tallying centre. The opposition maintains that security forces carried out extrajudicial killings of peaceful supporters.
Adding to the death toll, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba — Museveni’s son and widely believed successor — boasted on social media that “we have killed 22 NUP terrorists since last week.” The claim, whether accurate or propagandistic, signals the government’s willingness to use lethal force against political opponents it labels as criminals.
Threats, Torture, and Mass Detention
The post-election crackdown has gone far beyond the immediate violence. Hundreds of NUP supporters and officials have been detained before and after the election, with the opposition alleging many have been tortured. At least 118 NUP members were charged in court on Monday with election-related offenses including unlawful assembly and conspiracy.
The repression has been accompanied by extraordinary threats from the highest levels of government. Kainerugaba, Uganda’s military chief, issued Wine a 48-hour ultimatum on Monday to surrender to police, threatening to treat him “as an outlaw/rebel and handle him accordingly” if he refused.
In a particularly chilling post, Kainerugaba wrote: “I’m praying the 23rd is Kabobi,” using a derisive nickname for Wine and apparently wishing for his death. The military chief has a history of inflammatory social media posts, including a 2022 threat to invade neighbouring Kenya and a boast last year about holding Wine’s bodyguard in his basement with threats of castration.
Despite these public threats, police spokesperson Kituma Rusoke said Monday that Wine was not being sought — a contradiction that underscores the confusion and fear gripping Uganda’s political opposition.
A Dictatorship Entrenched
Wine’s description of Uganda as a dictatorship is supported by the systematic nature of the repression. Speaking to Reuters, he said “nobody is safe in Uganda” and described his party’s approach in bleak terms: “In a dictatorship, you don’t draw a strategy, but you respond to the kind of oppression.”
The election has crystallised concerns about dynastic succession, with Museveni, 81, widely believed to be grooming Kainerugaba, 51, to take over despite official denials. The younger Museveni has spoken openly about his desire to succeed his father, who has ruled since seizing power in 1986.
Wine has called on the African Union to speak out against what he alleges was widespread electoral fraud and violence, but regional silence has been deafening. The international community’s muted response stands in stark contrast to the severity of the crisis, where an opposition leader credibly fears for his life from the country’s military chief.
A Nation in Hiding
The crackdown has forced much of Uganda’s democratic opposition underground. Leading politicians are in hiding, hundreds of activists are detained, and those who remain free live under the constant threat of arrest, torture, or worse.
“I’m not a criminal. I’m a presidential candidate, and it’s not a crime to run against his father,” Wine said in response to Kainerugaba’s death threats — a statement that would be unremarkable in a functioning democracy but represents an act of defiance in Uganda’s current climate.
The fear is pervasive and justified. Wine’s assertion that “we don’t believe in violence, but we believe that when we fight back morally and expose this impunity, maybe it will stop” reveals both the opposition’s limited options and the slim hope that international pressure might eventually restrain Museveni’s regime.
As Uganda enters what may be Museveni’s final term — or the beginning of a dynastic transition to his son — the post-election violence has demonstrated the lengths to which the regime will go to maintain power. The death toll continues to rise, opposition leaders remain in hiding or detention, and the space for democratic dissent has all but disappeared.
For now, Uganda’s opposition finds itself fighting not for electoral victory, but for survival.
