KIDNAPPING for ransom in West Africa’s Sahel region has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade, with violent extremist groups increasingly targeting local civilians rather than Western hostages, according to new research published in The Conversation.
The study, conducted by Alexander M. Laskaris, a visiting scholar at the University of Florida, and Olivier Walther, an associate professor of geography at the same institution, analysed nearly 58,000 violent events across 17 West African countries from January 2000 through June 2024. These incidents resulted in more than 201,000 deaths.
Researchers found that abductions and forced disappearances have increased twentyfold since 2017, when the jihadist alliance Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin was formed. The shift coincides with declining numbers of foreigners in the region due to security concerns and travel warnings from Western governments.
“Most of the victims of kidnappings for ransom were Westerners until the end of the 2010s,” the authors wrote. Armed groups have now turned their focus to regional civilians, implementing what researchers describe as a predatory economy in rural areas.
The kidnapping industry has proven highly lucrative for extremist organisations. European countries paid an estimated $125 million to al-Qaida and its affiliates between 2008 and 2014 for hostage releases, according to the research. More recently, the United Arab Emirates allegedly paid $50 million plus military equipment in October 2025 for the release of Emirati hostages in Mali.
These ransom payments have funded weapons purchases, training programs, and recruitment efforts by militant groups across Mali, Niger, Mauritania, and Burkina Faso. Security experts have identified ransom payments as a primary driver of al-Qaida’s expansion in northern Mali.
The research revealed that kidnappings now occur along major transportation routes and throughout rural areas, particularly from Mali’s Wagadou forest south to the W National Park bordering Burkina Faso, Benin, and Niger. The Lake Chad region has also seen substantial kidnapping activity.
Approximately one-third of abduction events involve girls and women, the study found. In late November 2025, more than 300 children were kidnapped from a Catholic school in western Nigeria.
Local victims are typically released after surrendering valuables such as motorcycles, phones, livestock, and food, or after ransom payment. The amounts demanded from local civilians are far smaller than those for Western hostages but collectively sustain extremist operations.
The research, based on data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, highlights a persistent dilemma for governments and families. While paying ransoms incentivises future kidnappings, the authors noted that armed rescue attempts most often result in hostage deaths.
The United States reorganised its hostage response framework through the 2020 Robert Levinson Hostage Recovery and Hostage-Taking Accountability Act, streamlining accommodation processes while maintaining prohibitions on ransom payments to terrorist organisations.
The findings underscore the expansion of kidnapping from an occasional tactic into an entrenched economic system that now primarily affects African civilians rather than foreign nationals.
The research was published on December 11, 2025, in The Conversation, where Laskaris and Walther serve as contributing authors. Laskaris previously served as U.S. ambassador to Chad and Guinea. Walther receives research funding from the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club.
